The crypto industry is holding its breath for a second Donald Trump presidency since the former president has vowed to end President Joe Biden’s ‘crusade against crypto.’
Trump’s odds of winning the U.S. elections in November have been on the rise since his failed assassination attempt last week. According to a poll released by CBS News this week, 52% of voters are likely to favor Trump for a second presidency.
However, while the crypto industry waits with bated breath, it may not be good news for overseas crypto firms. Foreign crypto exchanges like Binance, OKX, and Deribit may feel a pinch in their market shares as their U.S. peers thrive under a Trump tenure, Bloomberg reported on Sunday.
These overseas exchanges had seen their market shares rise as their U.S. rivals had to shutter or forego the launch of some of the most popular crypto services. With more crypto-friendly regulation, as Trump has promised, U.S. exchanges could launch trading services with more leverage or crypto futures and options contracts with more expiration dates.
Bitmain, the largest manufacturer of Bitcoin mining machines, could also face challenges under a potential Trump presidency. Most U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners currently use mining rigs from the Chinese conglomerate. U.S. rivals like Block and Auradine selling new chips and machines to Bitcoin mining companies will further add to the challenges in store for Bitmain.
Nearly every U.S crypto firm will benefit from a Trump presidency
Market participants and observers believe that nearly every U.S. crypto firm is set to benefit from a second Trump presidency. Earlier this week, Jefferies analysts stated that Trump’s “overt support” for Bitcoin and crypto could benefit crypto stocks.
Christian Catalini, founder of MIT Cryptoeconomics Lab, told Bloomberg:
“Almost everyone in the US would be a winner if they are willing to operate by the new rules when implemented.”
The potential winners include Bitcoin miners as well as crypto firms who faced challenges while trying to go public in the U.S.
In June, Trump held a meeting with Bitcoin miners, following which, he posted on his Truth Social account that Bitcoin miners would be “our last line of defense against a CBDC [central bank digital currency].” He added that his ambition is to ensure that all remaining Bitcoins are “MADE IN THE USA!!!”
Under Biden’s presidency and Gary Gensler’s leadership of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), crypto firms have had less success in pursuing an Initial Public Offering (IPO). USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin issuer Circle, for instance, scrapped its plans to go public over a year ago, but subsequently filed for an IPO in January 2024.
Kraken, the second largest U.S. crypto exchange, and crypto miner-turned artificial intelligence computing provider, Northern Data, have plans for an IPO in the works. Under a Trump presidency, these firms could finally get the green light for listing, especially since the former president is expected to replace Gensler with someone more crypto-friendly.
It is worth noting that Kraken founder Jesse Powell has donated $1 million to Trump’s campaign. Powell, however, is one of the many in the crypto industry supporting Trump’s re-election bid.
Crypto exchanges, which have increasingly faced banking challenges amid tighter regulations, may see their pool of banking options expanding as regulations ease under Trump.
Furthermore, Trump has vowed never to allow the issuance of a digital dollar — a good news for the crypto industry, which sees a CBDC as a potential way for the government to expand financial surveillance. In February, Trump called CBDCs a “very dangerous thing.”
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