Recent analysis from QCP Capital indicates a marked shift in derivatives market sentiment, signaling that options traders are bracing for further declines in Bitcoin value.
Dissecting the Bearish Sentiment
The derivatives market has experienced a notable shift over the past day, with the implied volatility in Bitcoin options decreasing.
This indicates that traders are worrying more about the possible downside risks. According to a note from analysts at QCP Capital, the spread between call and put options has tightened by three volatility points. QCP Capital noted:
While spot prices remain muted, the options market is painting a different picture. 26 Jul vols made an impressive 8-vol rally with RR dipping by 3 vols signalling caution to the downside.
This contraction reflects growing market caution as traders prepare for possible Bitcoin price declines amid increasing sell-pressure. Notably, the US government moving Bitcoin to exchanges like Coinbase and MtGox creditors beginning to receive their redistributed assets via Kraken, are contributing factors.
These movements have injected substantial Bitcoin into the market, potentially suppressing prices further. QCP Capital’s analysts added:
With the ETH Spot ETF potentially not impacting prices on the outset, coupled with potential selling pressure from the US Government and Mt Gox, prices may remain subdued until momentum builds up leading to the elections.
The Positive Bitcoin Signal
Amid the bearish sentiment from the derivative market shared by QCP Capital, some other Bitcoin metric suggest quite an opposite sentiment—Bullish.
According to a CryptoQuant author on the QuickTake platform, there has been a significant increase in Bitcoin withdrawals from Kraken.
This is particularly noteworthy as it comes at a time when Mt.Gox creditors are receiving their funds from the Kraken exchange. The analyst noted:
This could be a positive signal, indicating that they are not selling and are preparing to hold their coins, moving them from the exchange to cold wallets. Although the volume is not high, over 5K $BTC (USD 329.192.018$) have been withdrawn in the last 24 hours.
Meanwhile, regardless of the mixed signals from both QCP Capital and the CryptoQuant analyst, BTC itself is still maintaining a crucial mark price above $66,000.
Although the asset briefly traded at $67,073 earlier today, Bitcoin has now retraced slightly, trading for $66,705 at the time of writing.
According to prominent crypto analyst RektCapital, so far, not only has BTC successfully retested the old all-time high (ATH) major resistance area, but the asset now has a chance to “form a new Higher High for the first time in months.”
Not only has the retest been successful…
But Bitcoin also has a chance to form a new Higher High for the first time in months$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/2sMk2eekFN pic.twitter.com/wHubSs1a9Q
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 22, 2024
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