The assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday has led to a surge in his chances of winning the presidential election, according to crypto prediction market Polymarket.
A recent report by Fortune found that while traditional polls may paint a different picture, Polymarket and PredictIt are seeing a notable shift in the odds following the incident.
Crypto Industry Rebounds As Trump’s Chances Rise
Prediction or betting markets offer a platform where traders exchange contracts based on uncertain future events. The prices of these contracts reflect the collective prediction of market participants, effectively serving as odds.
In this sense, Polymarket’s prediction market shows a significant increase in Trump’s odds after the assassination attempt, jumping from 60% to 72%. Conversely, Biden’s odds have risen slightly to 18%, while Vice President Kamala Harris’ odds have plummeted from 13% to 5%.
PredictIt, another prediction market, also reflects the shift, with Trump’s odds rising to 67% and Biden’s falling to 26%.
The crypto market’s reaction to the incident has been notable, particularly the prices of the largest tokens, which have rebounded recently. The Fortune report suggests that Trump’s reaffirmation that he would be the “crypto president” if re-elected has led to the recent rally in the crypto market.
Signs Of Recovery
Bitcoin, for example, surged 6%, topping $63,000 for the first time in three weeks, after hitting a low of $53,500 on July 5th for the first time since February. Currently, the largest cryptocurrency on the market records gains of 6% and over 13% in the 24 and seven-hour time frame.
Crypto-related stocks, such as Coinbase Global and crypto mining companies Marathon Digital Holdings and Riot Platforms, also experienced upward momentum with gains of 10%, 7%, and 6%, respectively.
Meme coins created in a parody of the former president also saw a notable increase with the example of MAGA, rising over 45% in the seven-day time frame and 7% in the past 24 hours, leading to a current trading price of $8.43, not seen since late June.
However, the token is seeing a 66% decrease in trading volume and a 53% decrease from its all-time high of $17.5 recorded in June 2024, according to CoinGecko data.
Fortune also reported that the shooting on Saturday had an indirect impact on Trump’s business ventures. Shares of Trump Media and Technology, the parent company of Truth Social, jumped 47% after the incident, potentially adding $1.8 billion to Trump’s total wealth, suggesting growing investor interest in Trump-owned businesses after the assassination attempt.
Featured image from Toledo Blade, chart from TradingView.com