Former President Donald Trump holds a commanding lead over Vice President Kamala Harris on Polymarket — with a notable edge in every key swing state.
Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market. It notably forecast that President Joe Biden would drop out of the presidential race several days before he made the announcement.
As of July 23, Trump has a 64% chance of winning the presidency, compared to Harris’s 34% — marking a 1% increase for Trump and a significant 4% rise for Harris over the past week.
However, Trump’s odds have consistently been above 50% since March, showing an upward trend, while Harris’s recent gains have narrowed the gap slightly but remain behind the former president.
Swing state lead
The swing states, crucial for any presidential hopeful, show a clear preference for Trump and the Republican party.
Based on Polymarket’s latest data:
- Georgia: Republicans 68%, Democrats 32%
- Arizona: Republicans 66%, Democrats 34%
- Nevada: Republicans 65%, Democrats 35%
- Pennsylvania: Republicans 59%, Democrats 41%
- Wisconsin: Republicans 55%, Democrats 45%
- Michigan: Republicans 53%, Democrats 47%
The numbers indicate that Trump’s support is solidifying in regions that have historically decided the outcome of presidential elections. The balance of power projections further highlight a Republican advantage:
- Presidency: 64% Republican
- Senate: 74% Republican
- House: 53% Democrat
The market also predicts the potential of a Republican sweep is at 40% likelihood, while a Democratic sweep remains less likely at 17%.
VP nomination
Vice President Harris remains the frontrunner for the DNC’s presidential nomination with 92% odds, while former First Lady Michelle Obama trails significantly with only 5% odds. Hillary Clinton is in third place with a 1% chance.
The forecast for the Democratic vice-presidential nominee shows a more competitive field, with Mark Kelly leading at 35%, followed by Josh Shapiro at 27% and Roy Cooper at 20%.
Meanwhile, the market believes there is a 53% chance of Harris winning the popular vote and only a 36% chance of Democrats winning the Presidency.
The odds for a Harris vs. Trump debate before the elections are also falling, standing at 69% as of press time, while the odds of President Joe Biden finishing his term have risen to 63%.
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